Stat Turd chimes in on MSD, the No.3, and theory of Evolution

We’ve saw it happen again yesterday. A wicket falls, and the now-familiar sight of  MSD walking in at No.3.  The innings is pretty much the same – lasts about 20 or so deliveries, gets an average of 1 boundary (possibly hit hard enough to destroy a fielder or an umpire from the face of the earth), a few quick singles and twos,  an attempt at upping the tempo, and the invariable dismissal.

A quick look around some of my daily reads (  Late, Prem ) gives you the flavour of the day. The aforementioned folks quite beautifully sum up the flaw in Messrs. MSD occupying the No.3 position .  Not wanting to be left out of the bandwagon, F&F echos the same thoughts  in this section (and pretty much the reasoning), but tries to look some numbers at the same time.

For posterity’s sake, let’s have a quick comparison between the numbers from the 50 over format and the T20 international format.  This will give us the basis for comparison. Some quick differences though:

1. T20 is like the highlights package of 50.

2. Strike rate is key

3. 50 Overs probably requires a little more planning and understanding of the game as it happens.  T20 is a little more slam bang

4. There are definitely going to be many less one-sided games in T20 than in the 50 over format. In fact, there definitely are more close games (keep this in mind).

50 Over format

We all know that the captain is an immensely successful 50-over cricketer. Have a look at the numbers , and let’s compare him to 2 other cricketers:

1. Yuvraj Singh – dangerous Bat and a definite feature in any Indian 50 over and 20 over team

2.  M. Hussey  – often acknowledged as one of the best players in 50 over cricket

50 Over Comparison

That is quite stunning no matter how you look at it. Dhoni’s average and even strike rate in fact betters two of the best in business (though the strike rate is a little less signficantly different here).

An important feature here is the % Not outs, which is implies that there’s about a 26% chance that Dhoni remains not out at the end of the innings. Sweet!  Hussey’s % Not out is a jaw-dropping 36% , giving him bradman-esqe averages here, but let’s not forget that he also bats at No.5 or so. FYI, I also checked MSD’s averages and %Not Outs  in innings he played at No.3 or No.4 and they aren’t significantly very different either.

T-20 : 50-Lite

Now in this format of the game, let’s have a look at  MSDs performance, and compare it with his own teammates . This should be fair enough, since the Indian team is supposedly the best on paper.  Going by the same standards, we can imagine the average to go significantly down, the SR to well up, but hey that’s all good since it is a smaller format of the game. Right?

T-20 International Record -Indian Team

Umm…. Right?

Results

1.  Purely by looking at the numbers,  Dhoni’s record in the 50 over game is quite phenomenal so far.  He’s a definite asset no matter how you look at it.

2. While Yuvi’s SR significantly increases in the T20 game, Dhoni’s does too, but not by much.

3. Dhoni’s SR in the T20 game is the lowest – and lowest by a decent distance – in his own batting line up!  I’ve included Irfan Pathan and Robin Uthappa too in there, the former from an “bowling” all rounder’s capacity, and the latter- just for laughs  .

Conclusions

1.I’m not saying that MSD is a liability. Far from it. I think he’s a pretty good leader, and he’s also a great player. His keeping skills have improved leaps and bounds from before, and he provides quite an entertainment with some of his unconventional shots. And I must make note of his running between the wickets – definitely the amongst the best in Indian and world cricket.

2. What he is not (right now-take note again) is a T20 India No.3 batsman- yet.   A T20 innings has 120 balls. Let’s assume your top  6 batsmen play well enough to consume all that. Thus, per head, they get 20 balls each. Dhoni will, on the average, fetch you 21 runs in those 20 balls . Raina – 25.  I’m not saying he will do that every time. But those 4 extra runs are far more crucial in a T20 game, than in a 50 over game (due to the differences between the 2 formats noted above).  Yousaf can fetch even more perhaps – but consistency is key too.  The key here is to give the best chance for the strongest batsmen to propel the score over a longer period of time , eh -for more than 20 deliveries.

3.  Imagine you’ve got Dhoni and Raina who’ll atleast play 10 deliveries each. Let’s assume they play it out and take their singles and twos, and even a boundary on a loose delivery. Now who will you bet on being there for 20 more deliveries after that, and maximizing the score?  Not saying that MSD can’t do it, but I think the smart money should be on someone like Raina (you know I love him).

4.  Shots : Dhoni’s got some, but I think even he’ll admit that the bowlers have him figured out for now. Which is why he cannot afford to occupy a pivotal position and screw up.   For  now,  we see MSD getting  out in a similar manner. He might have cut down the risk of him getting out to his vulnerable deliveries, but he finds it more difficult to score BIG off them.

There will be a process of evolution.  For a person who’s also the captain and wicketkeeper (and Media Protector) of the Indian Team, the process might be a little slower.  Remember Sachin from before (early 90s ) and the Sachin now (post 2000)?  Bowlers , laptop coaches  et al. continuously figured him out, and yet, he kept evolving.

* I had a section with snapshots on “Sachin” here, but it was a complete dud on my part as I had the wrong player itself!! Thanks to Tifosi for catching that. I’ll try to get better info up next time. Apologies on the brain-fart.”

MSD can emulate a Sachin too- Evolve. If he works as hard in his batting as he did in his wicket-keeping (and that’s asking a LOT out of him right now), he’ll reach greater heights. But that is asking a lot out of him right now in the middle of the tournament.

Footnote

India had a glorious opportunity to get Raina or Yousaf a bat in the previous 2-3 games, and we sort of missed a trick there.

If cricketers were bollywood stars

Who would they be? I thought of some of the more popular ones.

Sachin- Shah rukh
Entered the scene with a bang, always had the talent, promised everything and more , are commercial hits and bring in the masses even now. But both somehow leave the viewers yearning for the glory days gone by, when one could actually score in style and one could act. Both look like alien mutants of their younger selves now, constantly re-inventing themselves but unable to capture the glory of the good ol’ days.

Sehwag – Shahid kapoor
Eerily similar to their Sachin/SRK counterparts in looks and style, but there’s an obvious difference in class. Both seem capable of the long run but agonisingly screw it up so often that you just wish they turn around and go away.

vvs Laxman – Nana Pataker
Middle-aged journeymen who’ve been riding on the wave of a couple of glorious performances eons ago. Seemingly never out of contention, but a performance from either is as rare as a caveman with broadband connection.

Ganguly- Saif ali khan
The indian bad-ass. Both have donned the role of a one-of-a-kind indian captains and villian with elan, attitude and style. After uninspiring debuts (Ganguly in Australia, Saif in gems like tere mere sapne) , they roared back in awesome style.

Yuvraj singh – Sunny Paaji
Fearless friggin’ warriors and sons of the country soil. One can almost imagine them scaring a cow to product 10 gallons of milk for them to gargle with. They expect themselves to go and kick the bad guy’s (and all his cling-ons) collective asses their own place, plant the Indian flag , break into a bhangra and come back. Their hands collectively weigh an incredible 67 kilos, so powerful that they often risk of crushing their balls when they harmlessly scratch it, as all us men do . Both look as if they’ve shit out their most of their brains , and only have their brawns left.

Gavaskar – Amitabh bachhan
Big shots in their own field, prestigious, well-read, and sort-of respected look about them. Still dabbling with their professions instead of spending their retirements taking their families out to Maldives or something. Both have Over-rated kids involved in the same profession, constantly under pressure often threatening to fade into anonymity. Shady politicians at heart.

Shastri – Emran Hashmi

“Shaz” and Kissomaniac for some reason always seem to be eying the women around. And we guys just can’t figure out why they actually drive some women nuts in their heydays. You know exactly what’s coming from their mouths (oft-repeated lines in one case and tongue in the other), just like the sun always rises in the east, just like you know the way to your bathroom, just like cow dung always stinks. O.k you get the picture. Both apparently spend all their mojos on screen and lead a less flamboyant life off it. On a side note, see if you can catch Shastri’s “bodybuilding” tips on ESPN/Star, it’s quite unbelievable that he actually gets paid for that crap.

Dhoni- Akshay Kumar
Playboy image , the ladies around them, and ambassadors of the metrosexual-meets-machismo hybrid. Something seems to be similar about the two- and it’s not just the modest beginnings. Both in recent times have been quite bankable and do a lot of khiladi level ass-kicking.

Dravid and Kumble – Nasserudhin Shah and Om Puri
Flash has never been their thing. It’s always been substance and hard work, and hardcore skills. Consistency more often than not has been their thing. While they will never be sachin/ AB/SRK, they don’t aspire to be either. Have a few stunningly terrible flops and some truly head-scratching decisions along the way in their career.

Vinod kambli – Manisha Koirala
Potential promise at the beginning but sorta kinda screwed up. Fat spoilt kids who don’t fit in anymore in the current trend. Think of it, the chances of kambli diving during fielding are as good as Manisha trying to fit into a thong – which will be like over sized pajamas to the deepika padukones of today.

Bhajji- Suniel Shetty

Overly-emotive and aggro little bullies, giving rise to suspicion that both are definitely OD-ing on testosterone supplements. Started out as Numero Unos but now have to contend with the agony of playing second fiddle to others. They have their moments in the middle of the game – a good crucial over here , a gut-wrenching “I’ll kill you, you baaass-turrrdd” and shoot with a bazooka there. But when it’s crunch time, they crawl into their respective holes and let the big boys take over. Both have a trademark constipated look often.

Agarkar- Nirupa Roy

Like the everlasting itch on the end of the nose, these have been there forever, and just wouldn’t go away. Their job is to simply bring doom and gloom from the moment they appear on screen, and both do it with incredible effect. One is just left to wonder if some things are meant to be. Just like one of them has ALWAYS been amitabh’s on screen mom, the other has ALWAYS been the hole in the teams umm..buttocks.

 

 

 

Sreesanth – Master Bittu

Excrutiatingly annoying- the type where you scratch your long fingernails over the blackboard. For those who don’t know master bittu, he’s an impish little blondish headed desi flower child in the centre of most plots during the 70s and 80s. The one blot in everything cute with kids. He’s the sort of brat who’d always get himself and everyone into trouble. The kid for whom the labourer father works for 27 hours a day in the sun , pulling rickshaws and that sort of ancient thing and buy him a loaf of bread. And he drops the bread on the floor ,claiming he wants peanut butter to go with it. The kind who you wanna bury in sand and kick the head into orbit.Always comes out unscathed in the end .

Srinath – Alok Nath

Both have this pained look about them , as if the whole world has conspired against them. If not , their awesome talent would have led to earth-shattering records and box-office hits. . Both are the epitome of terrible quiz masters, Srinath always asking batsmen questions outside the line of off-stump, and Nath asking his daughters, in-laws, god, and anyone else who could bear listening to him stuff about if he has left any “gaps” (kami) in the arragement of the marriage, if he has raised his daughter well inspite of being a single parent (pitaji and maataji), if the only crime he committed is that he is poor, which is

why his evil in-law counterpart refuses to accept his daughter etc. TORMENTED. Both never got their due answers.

Here are some of them:

Learning the “outswinger” grip from the mother of all moms

Sacrificial lambs – proverbial bakras

“I want my peanut butter!”

ugh…. no words.